Economic Forecasting

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.

About Authors:

NICOLAS CARNOT is Head of the Domestic Economic Outlook Division at the Ministry of Finance, France. He has held several economist positions at the French Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund. His research focuses on macroeconomics and macroeconomic modelling.

VINCENT KOEN is Principal Economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and one of the main authors of the OECD Economic Outlook. He was previously an economist at the International Monetary Fund and the French Central Bank. He has written a textbook on capital markets and numerous economic articles and holds a PhD from MIT.

BRUNO TISSOT is Senior Economist at the Bank for International Settlements, Switzerland and previously ran the International Economic Synthesis Division in the Forecasting Directorate of the French Ministry of Finance. His research focuses on macroeconomics and macroeconomic monitoring. With Nicolas Carnot he co-authored La Prévision Économique, which in 2003 received a prize for best economics book from the French Moral and Political Sciences Academy.

Table of Contents

Foreword

1 First principles 1

2 The data 15

3 Incoming news and near-term forecasting 51

4 Time series methods 85

5 Modelling behaviour 103

6 Macroeconomic models 133

7 Medium- and long-run projections 155

8 Financial and commodity markets 176

9 Budget forecasts 207

10 Sectoral forecasting 229

11 Accuracy 235

12 Using the forecasts 251

13 Communication challenges 265

14 A tour of the forecasting institutions 275

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